The Jebel Aulia Dam (JAD) is a lifeline for thousands in Sudan. JAD plays a critical role in managing the White Nile’s water levels, supporting agriculture, sustaining fisheries, and producing energy. Yet, this vital resource is now at risk. Armed conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, and rising water levels due to climate change have left the dam in a dangerous state. Left unattended and exposed to new structural vulnerabilities, the JAD could soon become the epicentre of a humanitarian and environmental catastrophe.
Our research at the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education under the Water and Development Partnership Programme examined these threats in depth. By simulating water dynamics under different scenarios, we highlighted how both conflict and climate risks have pushed the dam—and the communities that rely on it—to the edge.
The dam’s abandonment during the conflict has been a critical turning point. Dam operators fled their posts in November 2023 as the area fell under the control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). With the gates left fixed, the ability to regulate the reservoir water levels was severely compromised. As heavy rains swelled the White Nile and backflows from the Blue Nile increased, our simulations predicted a flood overtopping the dam by 0.2 to 0.5 meters in September 2024.
JAD plays a critical role in managing the White Nile’s water levels, supporting agriculture, sustaining fisheries, and producing energy
Fortunately, this disaster was narrowly avoided. Vulnerable communities successfully petitioned the RSF to increase gate openings, releasing water just in time to prevent flooding. However, the dam’s future remains uncertain. Without accurate data on the current gate settings or any operational plans, predicting future risks has become nearly impossible.
Adding to the crisis, the RSF’s reconstruction of a movable bridge—bombed earlier in the conflict—has introduced a new risk. The bridge was rebuilt over one of the dam’s navigation gates, which was not designed to bear the weight of heavy vehicles. If this gate collapses under the strain, the consequences could be catastrophic, leading to uncontrolled flooding downstream. Addressing this issue requires further study, which is currently hindered by the lack of access and resources.
The communities around the JAD are among Khartoum state’s most vulnerable. Many are low-income residents or internally displaced persons (IDPs) who have fled previous violence in other parts of Sudan. With over 11 million IDPs nationwide due to the 2023 conflicts, the strain on resources and safety nets is immense. For those living near the dam, fleeing to safer areas is often not an option, as they lack the financial means to relocate. Additionally, their livelihoods—whether tied to agriculture, fishing, or small-scale trade—are directly dependent on the dam's functioning. This dual reliance makes them particularly vulnerable to the dam’s potential failure.
The events of 2024 should serve as a wake-up call. To prevent future disasters, the following steps are urgently needed:
- Collaboration: Humanitarian organizations and engineering experts must be granted access to assess and operate the dam.
- Flood Preparedness: Early warning systems and evacuation plans must be implemented to protect at-risk communities.
- Structural Repairs: Immediate attention is required for the navigation gate and other compromised parts of the dam.
The Jebel Aulia Dam represents more than just a structure; it is a symbol of survival for Sudanese communities. Yet, its current state reflects the broader crises of conflict, climate change, and neglect. The near-miss of 2024 underscores the urgency of securing this critical infrastructure before it is too late.