The water industry is flooded with emerging technology buzzwords like big data, artificial intelligence, digital twins, and the Internet of Things. As an independent market research firm, we at Bluefield make a concerted effort to differentiate marketing hype from market reality.
It is clear that digital technology will change the nature of water, wastewater, and stormwater management, but it is too soon to say just how quickly this change will occur, or how widespread it will be.
For this reason, Bluefield’s team of water experts has developed a scenario-based forecast model that accounts for a range of inputs and conditions that could shape the outlook for digital water going forward.
In our new report, Water Industry 4.0: U.S. & Canada Digital Water Market Forecast, 2019-2030, we forecast three distinct scenarios for the U.S. & Canada digital water market which result in cumulative expenditure ranging from US$78.7 billion to US$127.7 billion between 2019 and 2030.
- Steady Flight represents Bluefield’s reference case and is the most likely market outlook based on current technology adoption trends in the U.S. & Canada water & wastewater industry. In the Steady Flight scenario, Bluefield forecasts US$92.6 billion in total digital water spend between 2019 and 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.5%—more than triple the broader water infrastructure sector’s 2% historical CAPEX growth rate.
- Digital Liftoff is Bluefield’s more optimistic high case and assumes that digital technology becomes mainstream in the U.S. & Canada utility industry—especially among small and medium-sized utilities, which have different needs and procurement practices than their larger peers. For this to happen, however, a rapid cultural shift will need to take place within utilities in their quest for more efficient customer, network, and asset management.
- Failure to Launch, a gloomier perspective, assumes that the uptake of digital water solutions remains limited to a minority of large, innovative early adopter utilities. Within this more restricted addressable market, digital water vendors will be increasingly challenged to navigate a smaller, more competitive landscape that already lends itself to the established platform players.
Bluefield Research’s “Steady Flight” Forecast Scenario, 2019-2030
Source: Bluefield Research
The question is no longer, will the water industry go digital? Instead, we ask how quickly, by which utilities, at what impact, and how big is the opportunity? Factors that will move the needle range from regulatory shifts and demographic, economic, and environmental pressures to utility adoption rates and digital business models that cater to a wide population of utility service providers.