Early warning systems save lives: but why didn’t they save lives in Spain’s recent floods?

As you might suspect, Japan is a pioneer in this technology, now boasting the most sophisticated early warning systems in three essential areas: technology, institutions, and community involvement at various levels and scales (Sustainable Development Impact Meetings, World Economic Forum 2023). This trio demonstrates that with the right technology and investment, early warning systems are an effective solution adaptable to any community or human settlement worldwide. Had they functioned properly in the region of Valencia on October 29, they could have given people the opportunity to do something as simple as finding refuge a few metres above ground; something as simple as not going to work, not moving their cars, or spending a few hours on a rooftop with neighbours.

While the intensity of natural phenomena will always exceed our attempts to confront it, early warning systems have proven that with just one day’s notice, they can reduce damage by an impressive 30%, amounting to savings between 3 and 16 billion dollars annually (WMO, 2023). Additionally, studies have shown that they reduce the number of fatalities by 97% and the economic impact by 21%, according to an analysis of disasters over the last hundred years detailed in Natural Disasters: How Many People Die from Disasters, and How Are These Impacts Changing Over Time? (Hannah Ritchie and Pablo Rosado, 2022).

At the UN, awareness campaigns highlighting the central role of early warning systems in disaster prevention have shaped the agenda of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for decades, with a strong emphasis since the effects of climate change began to emerge as a tangible reality, outpacing many previous predictions. In 2022, the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, tasked the WMO with leading an ambitious initiative: within five years, early warning systems should protect all people on Earth from climate change and increasingly extreme weather events.

At the launch of this initiative, Guterres noted that one-third of the global population — mainly in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) — still lacks the protection afforded by early warning systems. Africa is particularly vulnerable, with 60% of its population unprotected by such warnings. Guterres called this situation “unacceptable, particularly with climate impacts sure to get even worse,” and reaffirmed that "early warnings and action save lives."

Moreover, the 2019 Global Commission on Adaptation report, Adapt Now, highlights that providing a 24-hour warning for storms or heatwaves can reduce subsequent damages by 30%, and that an $800 million investment in such systems could prevent annual losses of between $3 billion and $16 billion.

These data, like a glimmer of light piercing the eye of a hurricane, spark hope and provide evidence-based solutions focused on strengthening and enhancing early warning systems. However, the intolerable death toll from the DANA storm on October 29 leads us to ask: does Spain have technology capable of meeting these challenges? The answer is yes. Then, looking at the three fundamental pillars of warning systems — technology, institutions, and community involvement — did the institutions responsible for coordinating these systems meet expectations? The answer is no. In this case, focusing on issuing warnings and prevention alone, this negative answer is entirely justified. Despite the urgent need, highlighted by this disaster, to review the regional governance model, the reality is that the warning systems available to all autonomous communities could have saved more than a hundred lives, as was the case when Storm Daniel hit Greece, Bulgaria, and Turkey in 2023.

For instance, Greek authorities closely coordinated with the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), whose information flows to all member states, and other agencies such as Copernicus, the UK Met Office, and EUMETSAT. They sent mobile phone alerts to various areas in central Greece, including the Sporades and Euboea islands. In total, Storm Daniel, which significantly surpassed our DANA in rainfall (up to 1,096 litres per square meter in Zagora, Greece), resulted in 28 deaths across Greece, Bulgaria, and Turkey.

However, we all remember the horrific death toll in Libya, where flooding claimed nearly 5,200 lives, with over 8,200 people missing. Former Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Petteri Taalas, told the press that early warning systems “could have prevented most of the casualties” in a country that, during the storm, was divided between two rival governments with weak sovereignty. No further questions regarding the role of institutions, Your Honor.

Early warning system technology in Spain

In Spain, we have the ES-Alert emergency warning system, also known as "reverse 112", which allows for mass warnings to be sent directly to the mobile phones of citizens in specific areas. These loud notifications, which Madrid residents recall since they were sent in this region in September 2023, are similar to text messages but require no subscription and cannot be dismissed until they are read.

The three fundamental pillars of warning systems are technology, institutions, and community involvement 

The system’s mechanism is as simple as it is effective: in an emergency, the relevant authorities assess its severity according to the General State Emergency Plan, which defines three levels. Only the two less severe levels allow warnings to be disabled on mobile phones. The next step then falls to the regional authorities, who are responsible for drafting the message and defining the area where it will be broadcast. This message is transmitted via cell towers in that area without needing the phone number or identity of the users, reaching all mobiles connected to those towers, even if the device is registered in a foreign country.

For message creation, the system itself includes an information broadcasting component called the Cell Broadcast Entity (CBE), which manages each warning, aiming to refine and detail information as much as possible, specifying the type of risk, observed or anticipated event, affected area, validity period, and instructions for the public.

Citizen participation: is there genuine awareness of warnings in Spain?

The final element, citizen instructions, brings us to the third pillar, as defined by the World Economic Forum 2023: community involvement.

Public awareness, in addition to enhancing the identification and interpretation of warnings, strengthens response capacity

In the document Community-Based Early Warning Systems: A Practical Guide (UNDP Mexico, 2021, available in Spanish), it is stated that public awareness, in addition to enhancing the identification and interpretation of warnings, strengthens response capacity. Furthermore, the report suggests that citizens should not only receive information but also participate actively in the monitoring and communication phases. The success of these systems largely depends on the public's ability to understand and act on the information received.

The guide suggests several awareness strategies, such as promoting campaigns and outreach activities on climate risks, forming Community Committees, training local authorities, and creating local adaptation plans.

So, are we, the Spanish public, prepared to respond and act upon the warnings issued by the systems currently in place? To what extent do we know how to interpret them accurately or understand what exactly we need to do when we receive them, both at an individual level and when helping our neighbours? Who is responsible for raising this awareness? In line with the UN's recommendation, are our local authorities prepared in this area? And one unavoidable question: What role does the climate change denial of some of our leaders play in the necessary planning of these strategies?

To conclude, I'd like to recall an excellent presentation by Juan Ojeda, Director of the Water Engineering Department at TYPSA, during the 2023 Spain Smart Water Summit — a prime example of the actions needed in this area. In his presentation on flood defence projects in Peru, Ojeda lamented the resistance he encountered (not only in Peru) from institutions and some companies in promoting and implementing digital technologies for flood prevention and impact mitigation. He emphasized that the most important thing is to explain to the public "what exactly they need to do concerning self-protection measures." Additionally, Ojeda stated, “Technologically, the solutions are there, but the reality is that countless people still die annually due to floods.” However, one of his quotes hit the nail on the head: “The problem with all this is a philosophical one. Humans struggle to grasp high levels of complexity.”

Indeed, the success of early warning systems lies in the complexity of factors encompassed by the trio of “technology, institutions, and public involvement”, a real challenge for public authorities. As Ojeda remarked, if the warning system fails, our only option is “to cling to a pole and pray.”