- A new joint report reframes Tunisia's water crisis as a permanent climate shift and sets out a concrete plan to match.
The African Development Bank (AfDB) and the Tunisian government have published a report calling for a fundamental shift in how the country approaches drought: not as a recurring emergency to be managed, but as a structural feature of a changing climate that demands a permanent institutional response.
Titled Drought Planning, Preparedness and Resilience Strategies: The Case of Tunisia, the study was prepared by the AfDB's Transition States Coordination Office through a national consultation process involving 22 institutions across government, regional bodies, operators and civil society. It complements Tunisia's National Water Strategy to 2050 and draws on an in-depth analysis of the country's climate, institutional, legal and financial landscape.
The diagnosis is sobering. Some 59% of years between 1950 and 2018 were classified as dry. Climate projections point to a potential rainfall decline of up to 25% in central and southern regions by 2100, while average temperatures could rise by between 2.5°C and 5°C depending on emissions trajectories.
Yero Baldeh, Director of the AfDB's Transition States Coordination Office, was unequivocal about what this means. "Tunisia is not facing a temporary water crisis; it is facing a structural transformation of its climate regime. This report does not propose emergency measures; it proposes an architecture for resilience. The African Development Bank stands ready to further support the country in implementing its programmes and to deepen its partnership to promote water security, in line with the orientations of Tunisia's National Water Strategy to 2050," he said.
Pressure from all sides
Climate stress is being compounded by human demand and institutional fragmentation. Agriculture accounts for around 80% of Tunisia's total water consumption, while drinking water abstraction rose from 296.2 million m³ in 2002 to 447.2 million m³ in 2018. Dam reserves fell to just 31% and 37% of capacity in 2023 and 2024 respectively — a stark indicator of how stretched the system has become.
On the governance side, the picture is equally concerning. A National Drought Plan was adopted in 2020 but has never been operationalised, hampered by a lack of implementation mechanisms, dedicated funding and inter-institutional oversight. Responsibilities remain fragmented across multiple ministries, directorates-general and agencies, with overlapping mandates and no single coordinating authority for drought response.
Malinne Blomberg, Deputy Director General for North Africa and AfDB Country Manager for Tunisia, stressed the report's practical intent. "Tunisia has real technical expertise, an ambitious strategic framework, and the political will confirmed by this workshop. The challenge now is to strengthen coordination among these resources. This report precisely identifies the breaking points and proposes solutions tailored to the country's institutional realities. It is not just another document; it is a working tool," she said.
Six levers for resilience
The report structures its response around six priority actions:
- Establish a national coordinating authority for water and drought management, reporting to the Presidency of Government
- Build a national early warning system based on climate projection models and hydrometeorological data networks
- Modernise the legal and regulatory framework, including fast-tracking the updated Water Code and operationalising the National Drought Plan at regional level
- Mobilise innovative financing through green bonds, climate micro-insurance and carefully structured public-private partnerships
- Build technical and institutional capacity at national, regional and local levels, with dedicated units and sustained training for public managers
- Promote a culture of responsible water use through awareness campaigns and integration into education curricula
Financing the transformation
The scale of investment required is considerable. National planning documents estimate the financing needed for climate adaptation at between USD 19.4 billion by 2030 and USD 22.7 billion by 2050. The report calls for water to be treated as a strategic investment priority under the upcoming Five-Year Development Plan 2026–2030, on a par with energy and core infrastructure, and for the development of dedicated financing instruments including climate bonds and agricultural micro-insurance schemes tied to predefined climatic thresholds.
