Right now, humanity is at a crossroads. Climate change, environmental biodiversity loss and extreme events affect us all, but some of us are affected more than others. This is causing big problems for society. Climate change is having a significant impact on the global water cycle, making extreme water-related events more likely and more severe. Having better decision-support systems is important for accurately predicting and monitoring water-related environmental disasters and optimally managing water resources.
Let us take Italy at this moment, as an example. Will Italy continue to be thirsty in the summer of 2024? The season promises to be problematic in Sicily, where drought is showing its worst face in the last 70 years: months in advance, it is already possible to say that rationing and tankers will be an unavoidable fate. On the other hand, the situation will be less complicated in the Po basin, where a water deficit seems unlikely, although it could manifest itself towards the end of the season, between August and September, should rainfall be well below average.
This understanding has been developed as part of the Digital Twin Earth (DTE) Hydrology project, which aimed to create the most advanced virtual models of the water cycle. The project, worth over EUR 2 million lasted 2.5 years, has been developed by a European consortium of 11 partners led by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrogeological Protection of the National Research Council in Perugia (CNR-IRPI). The project, supported by the European Space Agency (ESA), combined high-resolution satellite observations, ground data, advanced physical modelling, and artificial intelligence to create new tools to help us manage water resources better and deal with water-related natural disasters. The goal is to create a digital twin of the planet. This is a virtual model that can be tested, for instance, to destruction without causing real damage. It is constantly updated with new data, which means it can simulate best- and worst-case scenarios, assess risks, and track the development of dangerous conditions before they occur.
As the climate crisis gets worse and human impact on the water cycle increases, it's more important than ever to have advanced simulation tools
As the climate crisis gets worse and human impact on the water cycle increases, it's more important than ever to have advanced simulation tools. It is still tricky to predict things like floods and droughts, so we're building a system that anyone can use, including decision-makers and citizens, to run simulations with a high level of detail, so we can get answers at a local level.
Using data collected by the Sentinel satellites of the European Copernicus programme, as well as those of the EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites), NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellites, the researchers have developed a freely accessible cloud-based DTE Hydrology platform. This innovative platform enables the rapid processing of various future scenarios, allowing for the setting of different parameters, including atmospheric temperature, soil moisture, precipitation and river flow.
This prototype is as close as we can get to a digital twin. Our goal is to improve it to make it more in line with what users need and expand it to cover the whole of Italy and other European, African, and Central American countries. It’s going to take a lot of hard work from scientists, stakeholders, and even citizens to develop a reliable system for predicting extreme events. We need to come together as a community to build something really useful and used by those who need it.
Additional information on the project, on the platform, on the real world and scientific results - also for young minds - can be found in the DTE Hydrology Article Hub and specifically in the scientific paper outlining the project.