Drought conditions since September 2025 – exacerbated by scarce rainfall and warm temperatures – are harming crops, livestock and food security in East Africa, in particular in Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia and Eastern Kenya, according to the latest drought report from the JRC-run Global Drought Observatory (GDO).
With worryingly low soil moisture levels, vegetation severely impacted by the lack of rainfall and high temperatures, and seasonal forecasts marked by high uncertainty - where different scenarios could lead to very different impact conditions - the drought is expected to cause significant crop failures and yield losses. Food insecurity and the livelihoods of millions of people are and will likely stay under threat over the coming months.
Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 6-month period ending on 31 December 2025. Source: JRC based on ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5).
Data from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) point to an emergency-level food insecurity in the three countries as of January 2026. The humanitarian crisis is worsening by the day, with 4.6 million people already affected and over 135,000 displaced in Somalia. The crisis has been marked by rising livestock mortality, record-high cereal prices, and increasing acute malnutrition in children across the region.
In December, most of East Africa experienced warmer-than–average temperatures (baseline 1991-2020), with anomalies exceeding 2 °C above the average over north-eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and south-western Somalia. As a result of insufficient rainfall and high temperatures in the previous months, in early January 2026, soil moisture was lower than normal over south-eastern Ethiopia, southern and northern Somalia, and eastern Kenya.
The report relies on data and information retrieved and processed by the European and Global Drought Observatories (EDO and GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). It is part of regular analytical publications focusing on the analysis of drought events affecting Europe as well as the other regions of the world.
