Operational measures are being prepared across the Colorado River Basin as federal authorities respond to increasingly severe hydrological conditions that are placing both water supply and energy infrastructure under strain.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, total system storage has declined to roughly 36% of capacity, reflecting the combined effects of prolonged drought, the lowest recorded winter snowpack, and unusually high temperatures at the end of March. These conditions are accelerating inflow reductions and intensifying operational risks across major reservoirs.
Within this context, projections for Lake Powell highlight a critical vulnerability. Forecast inflows for the current water year are estimated at 2.78 million acre-feet—just 29% of the historical average—raising the possibility that reservoir elevations could fall below the minimum threshold required for hydropower generation at Glen Canyon Dam by late summer 2026 if no action is taken. Below this level, releases would be limited to river outlet works, increasing operational constraints and reducing reliability in both water deliveries and regional power supply.
To address these risks, Reclamation is advancing coordinated interventions across the system. These include transferring water from upstream storage at Flaming Gorge Reservoir and adjusting release volumes downstream. Planned releases from Flaming Gorge could range between 660,000 acre-feet and 1 million acre-feet over a 12-month period, while annual discharges from Lake Powell to Lake Mead are expected to be reduced to approximately 6 million acre-feet through September 2026.
“Given the severity of the risks facing the Colorado River system, it is imperative that we take action quickly to protect a resource that supplies water to 40 million people and supports vital agricultural, hydropower production, tribal, wildlife, and recreational uses across the region,” said Assistant Secretary – Water and Science Andrea Travnicek.
The combined effect of these actions is projected to raise Lake Powell’s elevation by about 54 feet, helping maintain operations above critical thresholds into 2027. However, reduced downstream flows are expected to contribute to further declines at Lake Mead, with potential implications for hydropower generation at Hoover Dam and for water users across the lower basin.
The measures are being developed in parallel with ongoing negotiations among basin states, tribal nations and other stakeholders, as existing operational agreements approach their expiration at the end of 2026.
