The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification - with the support of scientific partners from CIMA Research Foundation, United Nations University, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - have officially released and presented the World Drought Atlas at the UNCCD COP16 in Riyadh. This Atlas aims to illustrate all dimensions of drought and frame challenges and responses to equip policymakers to take steps and actions towards drought resilience.
The message is clear: drought is a global threat, and its risks are increasing every day. Without urgent actions and international cooperation, its cascading impacts may ripple across economies, financial systems, populations, and ecosystems, increasing the risk of triggering shocks and long-term effects.
Through a comprehensive scientific analysis spanning the past, present, and future—and incorporating diverse perspectives, from empirical evidence to indigenous knowledge and real-world success stories—the Atlas shows how droughts are systemic complex hazards with widespread and destructive effects across natural and human systems.
Heat and water shortages impact vulnerable communities harder
Droughts affect people and economies both directly and indirectly, with the most vulnerable populations bearing the heaviest burden. For those who rely on local water sources for drinking water, agriculture, hydropower, or river transport droughts’ impacts are immediately visible. However, droughts can also affect communities and economies indirectly, for instance by reducing ecosystems’ services or by raising the prices and the volatility of agricultural commodities on a global scale.
Socioeconomic challenges amplify both kinds of impacts, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities. In low-income areas, for instance, droughts can worsen food insecurity and gender inequalities, often forcing women to spend more time collecting water, which reduces time for other responsibilities and limits their access to education.
Currently, about 2.3 billion people live under water stress, with numbers expected to rise, especially in Africa. For example, smallholder farmers worldwide rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture and are highly exposed to rainfall shortages. Their limited access to irrigation infrastructures or drought-resistant seeds worsens their situation and during droughts many can't afford to buy food or switch to alternative income sources.
Although distant from Nature, drought severely impacts urban areas
Drought presents serious risks to human health also in urbanised areas, like cities, towns and semi-urban regions, where nearly 80% of the world’s population resides. When these densely populated areas face low water flows, pollutants like pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and pathogens concentrate more easily, in turn degrading water quality, and increasing the risk of waterborne diseases like cholera. Additionally, the impact of drought on soil can exacerbate the risk of floods, as damaged soils lose their ability to absorb water effectively.
When compounded by heatwaves and warmer-than-usual temperatures, droughts can also evolve on much shorter time scales —sometimes within weeks— and their impacts amplify. Urban areas dependent on hydropower are particularly vulnerable, as low water streams and supply can lead to power outages that limit refrigeration and increase heat-related health risks, especially in vulnerable groups.
Water scarcity has already been evident in several regions, often due to unsustainable water management. Cities like Cape Town or others in the Catalonia region of Spain have faced “day zero” scenarios where municipal supplies cannot be ensured. But the effects of drought can even transcend borders, sometimes fuelling competition for scarce water resources and sparking geopolitical and economic tensions.
The cost of the water crisis is not shared equally
Human activities – including over-extraction and pollution – are major drivers of the global water crisis, which has already pushed over 1.5 billion people beyond the “safe and just” water usage limits. Population growth, an expanding agriculture and ever-increasing consumption levels add to these pressures, while poor governance and inequalities exacerbate the situation.
At the same time, wealthy consumers often drive the demand for water-intensive products exacerbating water stress in drought-prone areas.
In this context, food systems are a critical part of the conversation as agriculture worldwide uses 70% of global freshwater resources and at the same time is heavily affected by the global water crisis.
Droughts impact agriculture, trade, and ecosystems
The World Drought Atlas points to significant future reductions in crop yields, especially if mitigation targets to limit global warming are not achieved. Large regions of the world may be affected by recurrent and persistent droughts while others may become climatically unsuitable to specific crops.
Another factor that can also amplify the effects of droughts and let them propagate globally is “virtual water trade”. A term used to refer to the water necessary to produce goods, especially food, which are traded globally and whose “use” happens in a different location from where they are produced.
Beyond agriculture and trade, droughts also harm ecosystems. Disruptions to small and large water cycles affect and reduce biodiversity, deplete soil nutrients, and prevent groundwater recharge. These changes not only reduce resilience to future droughts but also disrupt broader natural processes, such as carbon cycling, with cascading effects on local ecosystems and global environmental stability.
Achieving drought resilience: The need for transformative action
Building drought resilience requires transformative actions like closing knowledge gaps, reducing uncertainties in drought risk assessment and forecasting, and strengthening early warning systems to enhance preparedness and mitigate risks. Innovations that use artificial intelligence could also be critical tools in this effort. One example is the EU's Digital Twins initiative which aims at creating AI-powered virtual models of real-world systems to help plan sustainable cities and address climate challenges.
Due to the complex nature of droughts, and their widespread and destructive effects, drought management requires coordinated, multifaceted strategies that understand and account for the world’s complexity, diversity and promote communities' engagement and knowledge, rather than simple, one-size-fits-all solutions.
Therefore, to be effective, drought management needs to be locally tailored while integrating into broader national, transnational, and international strategies. Generic actions like promoting equitable access to water, reducing industrial and individual water footprints, diversifying energy sources, switching to drought resilience species, creating shades, or identifying heat shelters in urban areas are highly dependent on – and need to be adapted to - the local conditions and culture.
Forward-looking, proactive and prospective approaches, rather than reactive ones, are essential for creating impactful policies that could ultimately reduce risks stemming from structural root causes shared by drought and other natural hazards.
