Latest Water, Peace and Security analysis calls for action to reduce global water-related tensions

Global temperatures reaching new highs threatening food supply

NASA scientists reported that 2024 was the hottest year on record.  Temperatures in 2024 were 1.28 degrees Celsius above the 20^th-century baseline. In mid-October, The New York Times reported water shortages are threatening the world’s food supply, as one-quarter of the world’s crops are grown in areas where the water supply is highly stressed. Research shows that Mexicans dependent on rain-fed agriculture are more likely to migrate to the United States. Extreme drought areas have increased threefold since the 1980s according to a recent report cited by the BBC.   

Violent conflict predicted

The latest WSP Quarterly Update warns of violent conflict in West and Central Africa, Sudan and Bangladesh. In West and Central Africa over 5 million people require humanitarian assistance as a result of heavy flooding. In Bangladesh flooding has destroyed over 1 million tonnes of rice leading to violent protests. The ongoing conflict in Sudan is affecting the security of the Jebel Aulia Dam. Rebels closed the dam in December, causing further widespread displacement.

“Extreme weather events caused by climate change are resulting in mass displacement which in turn impacts economic stability and security on the ground. At WPS, we endeavour to break the cycle of instability and violence by facilitating dialogue to diffuse potential conflicts before they happen,” said Yasir Mohamed IHE Delft Associate Professor of Water Resources Management and coordinator of the Water, Peace and Security (WPS) partnership.

Drought, heat and floods

Drought in Southern Africa has caused the worst hunger crisis in decades. In China, a 30-year-old record for high temperatures was broken in the Chinese city of Ghanzhou. The extreme heat has meant that even in mid-November the city was still officially experiencing the summer season. In South America, a record drought in the Amazon River system upended the lives and local economies of 30 million people dependent on the system across eight countries. In the west of the US, evaporation is increasingly driving drought.

While Moroccan parts of the Saharan desert have flooded for the first time in decades. In Spain, catastrophic flooding killed 205 people when a year’s worth of rain fell in a matter of hours in Valencia. And in the US, Hurricane Helene caused at least 53 billion dollars of damage in North Carolina.

The Quarterly Update, based on the findings of the WPS Global Early Warning Tool, underscores the increasing intersection of climate change, water scarcity and violent conflict. WPS calls for urgent global and regional actions to address these challenges and reduce water-related tensions.

It highlights several areas of Africa, Asia and the Middle East to watch over the next 12 months for insecurity fuelled by climate and water challenges.