Dry conditions, especially prevalent in China, led to a "historic" global decline in hydropower generation during the first half of 2023, as revealed by a recent analysis, reports Phys.org.
According to research by the renewable energy think tank Ember, this decline serves as a "warning signal that hydro output could impede the pace of the electricity transition."
The group reported an 8.5 percent drop in global hydropower generation in the year leading up to June, surpassing any yearly decline in the past two decades.
Approximately three-quarters of this decline occurred in China, which faced record-breaking temperatures earlier this year.
Between winter 2022 and spring 2023, a significant portion of southwest China experienced considerably reduced precipitation and higher temperatures compared to a typical year, as stated by Beijing's ministry of emergency management.
The decrease in hydropower output led to a slight increase in global carbon emissions in the first half of 2023, despite a 12-percent rise in solar and wind power worldwide.
Ember mentioned in their report, released on Thursday, that the lower growth in electricity demand helped mitigate the rise in emissions, keeping it smaller than it could have been otherwise.
China, however, witnessed an almost eight percent increase in emissions as it compensated for the loss of hydropower.
Dry conditions, especially prevalent in China, led to a "historic" global decline in hydropower generation during the first half of 2023, as revealed by a recent analysis
Although the extreme heat and drought conditions contributing to this year's decline may have been exacerbated by climate change, the think tank cautioned that it remains challenging to predict future effects.
The group noted, "The impact of climate change on hydro potential varies by geography."
"Changes in precipitation patterns and intensity, along with increased evaporation, will impact hydro output positively and negatively depending on the region."
Certain regions in central Africa, India, central Asia, and northern high latitudes may witness an increase in their potential to generate hydropower.
Conversely, regions like southern Europe, the southern United States, and elsewhere are likely to experience a weakening of this potential.
The head of this year's COP climate meeting has advocated for a global tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030.
Additionally, the International Energy Agency projected last month that fossil fuel demand will peak by 2030.
However, wind and solar generation experienced a slower growth rate in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, reflecting the delicate nature of progress in the sector.
"While the remarkable growth of wind and solar energy is promising, we cannot ignore the harsh reality of adverse hydro conditions intensified by climate change," emphasized Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, Ember's senior electricity analyst.
"The world stands on the cusp of power sector emissions peak, and now is the time to drive forward a rapid decline in fossil fuels by securing a global agreement to triple renewables capacity in this decade."
