World Meteorological Day 2022: Early warning and early action
Nowadays it is hard to imagine a world without weather forecasts. They help us plan our days: from what to dress to what to do. But those forecasts do a lot more than help you plan for a picnic.
Meteorology, the science dealing with the atmosphere and its phenomena, has a major focus on weather forecasting, but beyond that, it is concerned with long term trends in weather and climate, and the potential impact on our lives. In recent decades, climate change has become an important area of meteorological research.
Every year we celebrate World Meteorological Day on March 23. It commemorates the establishment of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on that date in 1950 (which previously existed under the name International Meteorological Organization), and the contributions of meteorological services to the safety and well-being of populations.
The WMO focuses on the weather – short term events such as rain, snow of wind in a specific place and time – the climate it produces – the average weather conditions for a location over a long period of time – and the effect on water resources.
Follow all activities in social media with the hashtags #WorldMetDay and #EarlyWarningEarlyAction
This year’s theme is Early warning and early action, showcasing the importance of hydrometeorological and climate information for disaster risk reduction. As climate change leads to becoming more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes, the WMO calls for impact-based forecasts to protect lives and livelihoods.
In order to improve disaster prevention, preparedness and response, greater coordination is needed, not only between national meteorological and hydrological services, but also with authorities responsible for disaster management and with development agencies.
Climate related disasters and early warning systems
Disasters attributed to weather, climate and water related hazards caused more than 2 million deaths and US$3.6 trillion in economic losses between 1970 and 2019. During that period, the number of recorded disasters increased five-fold and the economic losses increased seven-fold, according to the 2020 State of Climate Services report. The good news is the average number of deaths for each disaster decreased by one third in those 50 years. The report looked at risk information and early warning systems for hazards which included tropical cyclones and hurricanes, floods, droughts, heatwaves, forest fires, sand and dust storms, desert locusts, severe winters and glacial lake outbursts.
Globally on average one in three people are still not covered by early warnings
The frequency, intensity and severity of extreme weather and climate events are increasing as a result of climate change, threatening lives, ecosystems and economies. This is where early warning systems (EWS) come in, with a key role in mitigating impacts. The 2020 inter-agency report stressed we need to move from forecasting “what the weather will be” to “what the weather will do”, enabling people and businesses to prepare based on the warnings.
The frequency, intensity and severity of extreme weather and climate events are increasing as a result of climate change
“Early warning systems (EWS) constitute a prerequisite for effective disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Being prepared and able to react at the right time, in the right place, can save many lives and protect the livelihoods of communities everywhere,” said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas.
Why the emphasis on early warning and early action to reduce risks? It is estimated that each dollar invested in disaster preparedness can prevent seven dollars of disaster-related economic losses; that is a considerable return on investment. Through accurate forecasts and warnings, and public education and awareness on how to prepare for hazards before they turn into disasters, it is possible to prevent loss of life and reduce the economic and material impacts.
Although natural hazards occur in all parts of the world, some regions are more vulnerable to certain hazards than others. The situation is particularly serious in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Moreover, human and material losses resulting from disasters are a major barrier for sustainable development.
Globally on average one in three people are still not covered by early warnings. More investment is needed to fill the EWS capacity gaps, particularly in African LDCs and SIDS. As well, investment should focus on the capacity to translate early warning information into early action, through improved communication and preparedness planning. Despite the good news of increasing levels of climate finance in recent years, adaptation finance is only a very small fraction (5%), and only part of that goes to risk information and early warning systems.
The role of water
The frequency of water-related disasters is on the rise, and billions of people across the world feel the impact of climate change through water: floods, droughts, landslides, glacier lake outbursts and storm surges impact lives and infrastructure, hitting hardest those that are most vulnerable.
In fact, water-related disasters are at the top of the list of disasters considering human and economic losses over the past 50 years, according to the WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes. Of the top 10 disasters in terms of number of the deaths, droughts (650 000 deaths) and storms (577 232 deaths) were the deadliest. Considering economic losses, storms (US$ 521 billion) and floods (US$ 115 billion) were the most harmful.
The atlas dedicates a special section to the disproportionate impacts of tropical cyclones on disaster data, as well as on developing countries. Tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes are the same phenomena named differently in different regions) are one of the biggest threats to life and property. The winds, storm surges and torrential rainfall trigger floods and coastal inundations.
But water-related hazards do not only affect less developed countries. “No country – developed or developing – is immune. Climate change is here and now. It is imperative to invest more in climate change adaptation, and one way of doing this is to strengthen multi-hazard early warning systems,” said Prof. Taalas.
A sad proof of the need for improvement in terms of turning warnings into preparedness was the flooding in Europe in July 2021, which caused almost 200 deaths and billions of euros in damages. Although the scale and distribution of floods matched those forecasted, and warnings were issued, in some areas people failed to visualize the threat they were up against.
Looking into the future, the impacts of climate change will to a large extent felt through floods, droughts, as well as freshwater scarcity due to the melting of glaciers and enhanced evaporation caused by warming. To address both water and climate challenges, the WMO has launched the Water and Climate Coalition, a community of multi-sectoral actors that focuses on integrated water and climate action.
A safer, more resilient future
WMO’s vision is that “by 2030, we see a world where all nations, especially the most vulnerable, are more resilient to the socioeconomic consequences of extreme weather, climate, water and other environmental events”.
Extreme weather conditions are making climate change visible around the world, a negative trend that is expected to continue
The theme of World Meteorological Day 2022 celebrates the achievements of national meteorological and hydrological services through early warning systems, while highlighting the work on disaster risk reduction to ensure those early warnings lead to early action.
Extreme weather is making climate change visible everywhere in the world, a negative trend that is expected to continue. In this context, early warning systems are seen as a powerful way to adapt. The accuracy of forecasts has increased thanks to supercomputers, satellite data and other scientific advances. And the information can get to remote areas through mobile phone alerts and weather apps. The WMO reminds us that early warnings work, and should be expanded to cover everyone, but not only that, they must lead to early action.