In a region of the world where history seems to repeat itself like an echo of centuries past, recent events between India and Pakistan have revived one of South Asia's oldest and most volatile conflicts, albeit this time over an element as vital as it is symbolically explosive: water. The Indian government's unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, following an attack in the disputed region of Kashmir, has rekindled fears of a confrontation of unpredictable dimensions between two nuclear powers whose relationship was already hanging by a thread.
The trigger for this new escalation was not just geopolitical or religious, but profoundly human: the killing of 26 Hindu tourists in an armed attack in Pahalgam, inside Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. According to The Indian Express, New Delhi was quick to blame The Resistance Front, a militant group that claims to be fighting for the liberation of Kashmir, but which, according to Indian sources, is reportedly receiving logistical and financial support from the Pakistani intelligence apparatus. Islamabad categorically denied any involvement, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government responded with a battery of diplomatic reprisals and, above all, with a measure that has put regional stability in jeopardy: the freezing of the Indus Treaty.
This treaty, signed in 1960 under the mediation of the World Bank, has for decades been seen as an oasis of cooperation between two historically warring countries. It divided equally the use of the waters of the six major rivers that rise in the Himalayas and cross the Indo-Pakistan border, allowing India to control the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas and Ravi), while Pakistan was critically dependent on the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) to sustain its agriculture and water supply. India's decision to suspend this agreement, which has survived even open warfare, has been perceived by Pakistan as a form of unconventional aggression, an “act of war2 in the words of Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.
According to the Sri Lanka Guardian, Pakistan's Punjab region, the country's agricultural heartland and responsible for much of the country's wheat and rice production, is already showing signs of water stress. Local authorities report decreasing water levels in rivers and growing concern among rural communities who rely on increasingly fragile irrigation systems.
The problem is further complicated when it overlaps with the historical conflict over Kashmir, a Muslim-majority mountainous territory that has been disputed since the partition of British India in 1947. Three wars, multiple border skirmishes and endless diplomatic tensions have left the region in a state of perpetual instability. In this context, the strategic use of water - building dams, diverting watercourses, retaining water flows - is not simply a matter of infrastructure, but of sovereignty and survival.
The international community is watching the course of events with growing concern. Multilateral organisations and governments such as the U.S., China and Russia have urged both sides to resume diplomatic dialogue and avoid a spiral of confrontation that could drag the entire region into an unpredictable scenario. However, in both New Delhi and Islamabad, nationalist discourses are hardening, and the room for negotiation seems to be shrinking as the “water war” narrative advances.
Recent military manoeuvres along the Line of Control, as well as cross-border air strikes reported by both governments, increase the risk of miscalculation. As an analysis published by CGTN points out, “in a region where nuclear weapons are seen as a guarantee of peace, the real danger lies in the arrogance of believing that no spark will set the forest on fire”.
Read the original article in iAgua.
